Australian Sport

All posts tagged Australian Sport

Part Two: Is Israel Folau Worth $6 Million Dollars?

Posted by Kayla Ramiscal on August 27, 2012
Posted in: AFL, GWS, Sport Economics. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

This is part two of a two part series. Read part one here.

I apologize, but to get this next part, you need to learn some economics. Don’t worry. It’ll be easy (I had my boyfriend read it before publishing so if he can understand it… anyone can).

First, look at why teams choose players. Teams select players for one of two reasons: they can help them win or they can help them make more money (ideally, both, but this is not a perfect world people!).  I’ll start you with on-field performance.

There are two terms you need to know: marginal cost and marginal utility.  Marginal cost is ‘the amount total cost increases when quantity produced increases by one.’  We can look at marginal cost as the additional amount a player is paid per game, which is $2,900. Marginal utility is the gain in an increase in consumption of a good.  In Folau terms, marginal utility is the amount Izzy contributes when he plays a game which can be judged by any of his statistics.  His averages are the stats we look at, because that gives the break-down of what he does each game.

Are you still with me? THANK YOU. We’re almost there!

Economics says that a player is only worth the money if his marginal cost equals his marginal utility. In short: a player’s contribution’s need to be worth nearly $3,000 each game.  If you remember what I wrote in part one… considering  Folau’s exorbitant salary, he needs to be contributing $100,000 per game.  Of course it depends on how much a club values certain stats, but I think it’s safe to say that he’s not. There’s no fighting it.  Maybe it is due to a position thing and he’ll get his bearings – I truly hope he does. But for the 2012 season? Nope. Not happening.

Alright, take a deep breath. That’s nearly all the economics out of the way! You did it!

The second reason teams choose players is because they believe they can contribute to revenue.  Considering his on-field performance, this must be the reason he was employed by GWS.  He has been marketable since day one – coming from the NRL was a good story, especially after Karmichael Hunt went to the Gold Coast’s new team.  He was in every single commercial leading up to the first game and has been involved in several advertisements and campaigns, all of which give GWS and the AFL publicity. Even now, with so many articles, regardless of content, GWS is becoming more and more popular. Unfortunately, I can’t evaluate this.  Why? Because I have nothing to compare it to. Would the team have been more or less financially successful without him? Are there fans that came out just to see him? Does he contribute in other ways such as leadership and team morale? I have no idea.

That’s the problem with player’s salaries and determining if they’re worth it: there are too many intangibles. I don’t foresee that ending anytime soon.

You wanted to know if Israel Folau is overpaid? That’s really for you to decide.

Are his thirteen points worth $1.5 million? Does he contribute $100,000 of performance or revenue for each game he plays?  Has he increased attendance and revenue enough to justify his salary? You tell me… I just do the math.

Part One: Is Israel Folau Worth $6 Million Dollars?

Posted by Kayla Ramiscal on August 24, 2012
Posted in: AFL, GWS, Sport Economics. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

I’m not sure why, but there’s been a bunch of articles on Israel Folau recently and all within the same vein: ‘Folau needs time to develop: Silvagni‘ – AFL.com, Paul Daffey.  ‘Folau deserves a real chance with GWS‘ – The Roar, Myles.  ‘Folau still learning: Sheedy‘ – The Roar, Rob Forsaith.

I am going to do my best to leave my personal feelings out of this because I have so, SO many feelings. I could create a website about them. But this is the summary of the articles: Folau is playing poorly so everyone is passing judgement, but the Giants and Kevin Sheedy (good man, that Sheedy bloke) stand behind him. If nothing else, it’s a heartwarming story about teamwork.

But facts are facts. And the fact is, Izzy is being paid a lot to do very little.  So it’s not his stats that are the problem (they are A problem, not THE problem), it’s how much GWS is paying for them.

For those of you who don’t know, Folau was a professional rugby player who traded Broncos for Giants when he left Brisbane to join GWS in its first year.  Although AFL salaries are not made public, he reportedly signed a deal worth $6 million over 4 years ($1.5 million per year). That’s a fair bit of coin, especially considering the average player salary is around $220,000.

There’s a lot of discussion in sport about how to know what a player is worth (as I’ve previously discussed, the NBL solves this problem through its Player Points System) and how to monetize their contribution.  This is where sports economics comes into play – I swear I will do my best to make this as clear and as non-economics-y as possible.

Let’s start with something basic: salaries.

The 2011 CBA states that the base salary (with includes superannuation and pre-season matches) of a first year player, drafted in the first round is $59,200 with $2,900 additional for every senior match played. Folau is different because he qualifies for the AFL’s elite athlete rules, but let’s evaluate him as a first year player, first round draft pick.  If he were a typical first year player, he would have made $99,800 this season (he might have also received a $8,100 bonus, but let’s ignore that for now) – yet, his contract gives him more than 15 times that amount. If you look at it the other way around, you realize GWS is paying him more than $100,000 per game.  Given his on-field performance the argument seems pretty weak.

It gets even weaker when you  compare him to his teammates. For kicks, let’s compare his stats and salary to the current NAB Rising Star Noms from GWS:

Note: These are totals, not averages.

Israel Folau – 12 games, 1 goal, 7 behinds (thirteen points total), 20 marks, 37 handballs, 61 hitouts. Rumored salary:  $1,500,000 (what his salary would have been as a first year player: $99,800.)
Jeremy Cameron – 16 games, 29 goals, 15 behinds (189 points), 80 marks, 160 disposals. Estimated salary: $105,600
Tomas Bugg – 17 games, 306 disposals, 55 tackles, 69 marks, 39 points total. Estimated Salary: $108, 500
Stephen Coniglio – 12 games, 17 points, 258 disposals, 58 marks, 31 tackles. Estimated Salary: $99,800
Dylan Sheil – 12 games, 34 points, 228 disposals, 39 marks, 46 tackles. Estimated salary: $99,800
Toby Greene – 17 games, 69 marks, 57 tackles, 50 points, 467 disposals. Estimated salary: $108,500
Adam Treloar – 16 games, 59 points, 73 marks, 42 tackles, 337 disposals. Estimated salary: $105,600
Devon Smith – 18 games, 82 tackles, 60 marks, 301 disposals, 10 goals, 18 behinds (78 points). Estimated salary: $111,400

These statistics show that Folau is being paid much more than his on-field worth. GWS could have gotten 12 more Jeremy Camerons for the price of Izzy!  Okay, okay, I’ll try and ease up on the Jezza-Love…but you can see why people are questioning the decision to spend so much on him.  Although Folau is a great athlete, he doesn’t know enough about the game to be a great player yet and while he might need a few years to reach his full potential, these other, younger boys have realized their potential straight away… and it didn’t cost the team $6 million dollars.

I’ll spare you the rest and instead, write up a part 2 to this series… stay tuned 🙂  Oh, and if you think this is all wrong, please read my disclaimer.

(EDIT: Read part two here)

Rule Breakers And Rising Stars? It Appears So…

Posted by Kayla Ramiscal on August 22, 2012
Posted in: AFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

Toby Greene is a tremendous athlete and I don’t mean ‘for a young guy.’  Oh, no. He’s a great AFL player, period.  It pains me to admit this considering I want Jeremy Cameron bestowed the honor, but up until round eight, Greene was a sure thing for the NAB Rising Star Award (although interestingly, he wasn’t nominated until round 14).  But then, he was suspended for a high hit on Jed Adcock and people started questioning whether or not a suspension should make a player ineligible for the Rising Star award.

I’m sure the issue has come up before, but people are talking about changing the rules. Rule changes for the AFL? How shocking. (That’s sarcasm – they change all the time).  So let me break this down for you in the simplest way possible.

The Current Rule: If a player racks up 100 demerit points, he’s ineligible to win the NAB Rising Star Award.  He can, however, still be nominated.

The Issue: Toby Greene was all set to win, but committed an offense worth more than 200 demerit points. The Rising Star selection committee (All-Australian selection committee) are bummed because they want him eligible.  It would make their jobs so much easier.

The New Idea: Never mind demerit points and suspensions – just pick the best new player.

What I Know: The NAB Rising Star award is designed to “recognise and encourage talented young players in the AFL.”  Just because a player slips up and hits someone a little too high or pulls a Chris Judd and chicken wings someone’s arm… does that diminish his talent? Not likely.  If the award is going to meet its goals, then it needs to recognise the most promising players, regardless of their indiscretions.

One great example is Ben Cousins – Rising Star, Leigh Matthews Trophy and a Brownlow, but not exactly the most pristine reputation (he’s a drug addict, in case you hadn’t heard). There is no arguing that he was a great player, but all these awards were given despite the fact that outside the game, he was a wreck.  It shouldn’t matter, right? Well, maybe.

What I Think:  The difference between Ben Cousins and Toby Greene is that his indiscretions happened OUTSIDE the football field.  The best players aren’t the ones who break rules and get more than 100 demerit points. You have to pull quite a stunt to get 100 demerit points – it doesn’t happen accidentally (well, maybe it does – I’ve never player professional footy).

I also think the selection committee is too hung up on Toby Greene.  Yes, it’s an unfortunate situation but changing the rules to accommodate suspended players gives the impression that rule breaking is acceptable.  And what will they do for different types of offenses? It’s hard to draw line between ‘acceptable’ suspension and and ‘unacceptable’ suspension.  Let’s say player gets one week suspension for “rough conduct“- okay, all good, still eligible. But then a player gets one week suspension for punching an opponent – still okay? Still good? Hm… I’m not sure. By not eliminating these players from the running, the AFL is essentially condoning bad behaviour and if it has to pick and choose between types of demerit points and suspensions, it becomes an unfair award.  Keep it how it is – it much more fair that way.

What Will Happen: The rule will change. It can’t change in time for Toby Greene to get his well-deserved award, but mark my words: it’ll change… and soon.

My Campaign For Jeremy Cameron: AFL NAB Rising Star.

Posted by Kayla Ramiscal on August 16, 2012
Posted in: AFL, GWS. Tagged: , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

 

This is just a brief beginning to my campaign for ‘Jeremy Cameron: AFL NAB Rising Star‘ and this will not be last you hear of it.  He is easily my favourite Giant, my favourite newbie and getting dangerously close to being my favourite AFL player, period.

Which is why I’m devastated that he’s out for the rest of the season.

He hurt his hip playing Port Adelaide in Round 19 (I was at that game!) and had surgery immediately afterwards.  He’s out for the rest of the season, but he’ll be back for pre-season.  Thank God.

He is a great player – he’s got a great leg, he’s not scared of anything (at least he doesn’t act like it) and you should see the way this kid goes for the ball. It’s good on TV and even better in real life.  I love it.  He got the second NAB nomination this season, 16 games, 29 goals (leading GWS) and the love of a hard-to-win-over American? – not bad for such an unsuspecting player.  Plus he’s had some great dream team scores which, as I’ve said before, the boyfriend makes sure I know EVERYTHING about.  No one really expected this from him.  Well… almost no one (because I did!).

While I’m upset that Cameron won’ be playing and that he’s had surgery, I’m not worried.  The article on GWS says that they knew Jezza would need surgery at some point, which is sad and I am not a supporter of clubs obtaining players who are going to break, but they’re taking care of him.  Plus, these are young’ns.  They’ve never been put under these physical strains before and they are demanding.  He’s had a great season and he’s gonna be a great player (Brownlow, anyone?).. now he just needs that NAB Rising Star award. GET IT JEZZA! (and get well, soon)

The ABL And The MLB: A One-Sided Relationship?

Posted by Kayla Ramiscal on August 13, 2012
Posted in: ABL. Tagged: , , , , , , . Leave a comment

WARNING: THIS IS A LONG POST.

As a new league, the ABL has very closely associated themselves with the MLB (USA).  They’re jointly owned by the ABF and MLB so they kinda have to.  The MLB has provided support in a million different ways providing finances, employment and internship assistance, initial organisation and, the thing I have an issue with, players.

Australians haven’t done so well in the MLB, despite what the ABL keeps trying to say.  There have  been only 28 Australian-born players in the MLB since the league was founded in 1869 and none of them have reached the heights that the US stars have.  Most people have heard of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon and Albert Pujols – especially if you’re into baseball – but not many people have heard of Grant Balfour, Rich Thompson or Luke Hughes.  Call it culture, but Aussies don’t shine like they should.  And they rarely play for a major league team for over a year and most of them get stuck in the minors.  But hey, if they play at all – that’s pretty great.  Not many people, American or not, can say they’ve played in the most competitive baseball league in the world. (Note: this seems to be specific to baseball, as Aussies have done very well in the NBA and NFL… they’re not really the hockey type)

That’s not to say these guys aren’t great players.  Glenn Williams played with the Minnesota Twins in 2005 and had a careerbatting average of .425 (a decent average if .300 – .400 and the league average is currently ) and yet, no one talks about him.  Dave Nilsson played for Milwaukee Brewers for seven years and had a 470 RBI and 150 home runs.  That’s pretty noteworthy, if you ask me.  So they’re good players – I’m not trying to insult their skills.

The problem lies within the relationship.  The MLB has essentially been using Australia like they use any other country – they take the best players so they can put them in the best competition (go ahead and fight me if you think there is a better baseball competition in the world – it will be a short fight) and they have a long history for doing so with countries like Japan, the Dominican Republic and many other countries.  That’s great for the MLB and great(ish) for the best Aussie players.  But those benefits rang true before there was a professional Australian league.  What happens now that the ABL has been established?  How does the relationship between the MLB and the ABL affect both leagues? Who wins this arrangement? Let’s tally up the points…

Starting with the main issue: money. The MLB has pumped some money into the ABL but hasn’t really seen a return yet (leaving the players out of it).  Still, they keep helping out.  League benefit: ABL (ABL-1, MLB-0)

Even though the MLB hasn’t seen profits yet… doesn’t mean they’re not getting good publicity.  If you check out the ABL homepage, or the homepage of any team, for that matter, MLB news dominates it – not ABL news. That’s not a bad deal. League benefit: MLB (ABL-1, MLB-1

Because baseball is a summer sport and American and Australian summers are at different times of the year, this has some perks.  Players from each league can play with the other league in the off-season (ahhhh, spring training).  This is especially good for the ABL because it means  better players, less costs associated with training (beneficial to both leagues) and, ideally, getting a big name down to Australia every so often to hype up the fans.  This can only happen because of the close relationship between the leagues.  Not a lot of teams would want their stars playing in other countries during their time off but this arrangement is really convenient for everyone. League Benefit: Both (ABL-2, MLB-2)

And by building up players who then go to the MLB, the ABL is gaining in popularity.  More people hear about where the players come from and want to know more.  If there’s one thing Aussies love, it’s their compatriots playing for a big league in another country – they pay very close attention.  This can help build up the ABL (we’ll have to wait and see) and trading good players gets them some money… and we all know that sports need money. League benefit: ABL (ABL-3, MLB-2)

But sending their best players to the MLB, well, the ABL is losing their best players to another league. There’s no other way of saying that.The sad part about the ABL is that so many players, Australian and American, are treating it like a minor league team.  They see it as a pit stop on the way to the MLB which means when the MLB comes calling, they drop everything and go.  And if you ask me, that’s no way to build a league.  Not only that… but they view it as a place they can end up – a “safety net” if you will – if they don’t make it in/to the MLB. For example, Brandon Barnes is an American who couldn’t really make it in the US.  So he came to Australia and played for the Blue Sox for a year… and now he’s called up to the Houston Astros.  Great for Brandon. Not so great for the Blue Sox who just lost a good player. League benefit: MLB (ABL-3, MLB,3)

Big names come down here to help out as well – former players, coaches, and staff come down to Australia, courtesy of the MLB and help out with the Academy or even get on the team staff here.  They’re talented people who just don’t want to deal with the MLB anymore. Fine by me! League benefit: ABL (ABL-4, MLB-3)

So looks like I was wrong… ish.  It does look like the ABL benefit from the relationship.  And it looks like a mutually beneficial relationship, too.  But I still maintain that all this player drama isn’t good.

These players, who use the ABL as a means to an end have got to stop.  Not only will the ABL suffer because they are constantly losing players and need to search for new ones, but it’s also detrimental to fans.  I would be pissed to see my favourite and best players running away to another country every season.  And if the dregs just end up in Australia and treating the ABL as a consolation prize… well, that’s not good for fan morale, either.  And the ABL wants this game to be popular.  At least, I assume they do.

So what do you think? Does the good outweigh he bad?  How can the ABL keep its players and grow as a league without stepping on the toes of its most important relationship: the MLB?

Note: I’ll have to evaluate the relationship between the ABF and ABL sometime soon… more on that later.

My Heart Aches For Dane Swan. But Not This Saturday.

Posted by Kayla Ramiscal on August 10, 2012
Posted in: AFL, Swans. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

Warning: This post is about the Sydney Swans and Dane Swan. Fingers crossed… you won’t get confused between the two.

Oh, Swannie. Why do you hurt my heart?

When the Swans take on Collingwood this Saturday, 7:40 at ANZ… there will be something missing: Dane Swan aka one of my favourite things about AFL. (Deep sigh)

If you haven’t already heard, and I’m sure you have, Swannie messed up by drinking over the weekend, showing up on Monday looking like hell.  The team, who had decided they were going to win (yet another) flag this year was unimpressed and banned him for two weeks.  He will be allowed to play in the VFL where, as my super-eloquent boyfriend puts it, “he’ll get like… a thousand touches.” I’m sure he will.

The reason this is so upsetting is because this was a big game for the Swans.  Collingwood is a great club and of the clubs left to face, highest on the ladder.  This is great finals preparation for them, which is essentially how they are viewing it.  But if they beat Collingwood, without Dane Swan… can they really say that they’ve “beat Collingwood?” Technically yes, because that’s what the record books will show… but when they win (that’s right, I said WHEN) to me, it will feel a bit hollow.

No, Swannie doesn’t kick the most goals or take the most marks, but he keeps the game going.  Last weekend, two guys (who I won’t name so they can save face) were talking about how Dane Swan isn’t “good” he’s just always “there.” Um… HELLO!? Isn’t that the point? How can you be a good player if you’re not near the ball enough to make a difference?  He’s always there. He’s always doing something.  Even if it doesn’t alter the course of the game… it simply makes the game.  Popular opinion says the midfielders better step up if they’re going to win this one.

Apparently, it’s been seven years since the Swans beat the Magpies.  Seven. Freaking. Years.  Which makes sense because this is what we like to call the Seven Year Itch.  The Swans, even without Bolton (get better soon, love!) are going to kill.  They’ve been very strong defensively, especially in contested possessions and that’s why they’re number one.  Who cares if Dane Swan is out? Just kick some ass, take some names and enjoy the victory!  I will have to chant that to myself all weekend.

And so, because I love lists… here’s why the Swans will win. Short and sweet.

1. Dane Swan is out.  Have I not made that clear?

2. They’re really positive about this whole thing.  The Swans know it’s their game to lose.

3.  Two of the three players, who need to step up if Collingwood is going to win, play below average when they play the Swans (or so say Sidebottom and Blair‘s 2011 stats and Beams 2010 stats – he didn’t play the Swans in 2011).  Odds are, the Swans will be able to hold them.  But then again… who know?  Past performance is no indicator of future performance.

4. It’s a Swans home game. 45,000 people. ANZ Stadium. A recipe for success.

5. Because I love the Swans. The end.

Why The NBL All-Star Game Will Be Awesome (Or Not…)

Posted by Kayla Ramiscal on July 29, 2012
Posted in: NBL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

I love All-Star Games. For the past 5 years, I have planned my year around the NBA All-Star Weekend. Okay, more like I planned my week around it. But still.  All-Star Games make me happy.  It’s only natural that when the NBL decides it’s hosting an All-Star game this year, I’m stoked, right? Well… sorta.

I recently read an article on why All-Star games don’t achieve their goals, so maybe its the cynic in me (or maybe I just love reading what other people think before forming my own opinions?), but I have a feeling this game will be a massive fail. I know All-Star Games have low viewership and they ‘re expensive and they don’t exactly build any extra interest in the game but that doesn’t lessen my infatuation.  If the NBA stopped having an All-Star weekend, I would… well, I’m not sure what I would do but I can assure you it wouldn’t be pretty.

But in this case, I’m hardly sure that anyone really cares.  The NBL has low viewership (yes, I just cited a Wikipedia page – what of it?) and game attendance and considering the purpose of the game is to bring in extra revenue and popularize the game amongst non-NBL fans, I doubt that goal will be reached.

However, it appears that the NBL is treating this differently and I’m excited to see how it all plays out. If the NBL succeeds with this game, there will be three reasons why:

1. They say the game is “back by popular demand.” Okay, fine.  But considering your fan base is less than 600,000 (less than 3% of the Australian population), it probably only took about 20 people to say they missed the game to be qualified as “popular demand.”  This will be the first All-Star Game since 2007 and I doubt they would even consider it unless they thought it was good for the league’s image and people wanted to see it.

2. They got the fans involved.  The fans voted in an online poll to choose the format of the game.  They chose between North/South, East/West and International/Australian.  As the image in this post shows, the fans opted for a North/South competition with four teams per side – how the game has operated in previous years.  They’ll continue to involve the public as the game gets closer by allowing them to vote on which players participate.

3. The game will be (relatively) inexpensive to operate.  Because it’s a smaller league, the associated costs might be lower than, say, State of Origin.  There will be fewer sponsorship and broadcasting rights so therefore fewer conversations. There will probably be less security because it will be a smaller venue.  Having just Aussies (and no internationals) means lower flying and accommodation costs.  All around, it just seems to be a cheaper event, which means the profits will be larger.

But if they fail which, I’m sorry to say, is the more likely alternative, there will be lots of reasons why. Mainly…

1. The spectatorship is really low. There’s no getting around it. It just is. You can’t make money if no one wants to see you play.

2. The weird games make money, not the normal ones.  Typically, it is the ‘unusual’ games that draw in more revenue.  It’s a fact.  If the league were concerned about income, should have opted out of the polling and just done Aussies v Internationals.  I have to believe that if the Miami Heat – the current NBA champions – showed up, people would come see them play the Aussies.

3. The game will be expensive to promote.  Even if the game itself is on the cheaper side, promotion and advertisements will be a bitch. The fan base is so small that if the NBL wants this event to be a success, they will have to work their asses off promoting it. When the NBA decides on its All-Star dates, it’s national news. The NBL isn’t even in the Sydney Morning Herald Sports section.

I love me a good All-Star game which means that on 23 December I will be sitting on my couch, wrapping Christmas presents and drinking egg nog (fine, I admit – just rum) watching the North v South. I just hope the NBL gets their shit together and starts promoting the hell outta this game starting… yesterday?